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Learning about Growth and Democracy

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  • ABRAMSON, SCOTT F.
  • MONTERO, SERGIO

Abstract

We develop and estimate a model of learning that accounts for the observed correlation between economic development and democracy and for the clustering of democratization events. In our model, countries’ own and neighbors’ past experiences shape elites’ beliefs about the effects of democracy on economic growth and their likelihood of retaining power. These beliefs influence the choice to transition into or out of democracy. We show that learning is crucial to explaining observed transitions since the mid-twentieth century. Moreover, our model predicts reversals to authoritarianism if the world experienced a growth shock the size of the Great Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Abramson, Scott F. & Montero, Sergio, 2020. "Learning about Growth and Democracy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1195-1212, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:4:p:1195-1212_17
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Canen & Kristopher Ramsay, 2024. "Quantifying theory in politics: Identification, interpretation, and the role of structural methods," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(4), pages 301-327, October.
    2. Nan Li & Chris Papageorgiou & Tong Xu & Tao Zha, 2021. "The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 28994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hyungmin Park, 2024. "Theory of developmental dictatorship," Discussion Papers 2024-10, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    4. Kabwe Omoyi Fanny, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Political Regime Type in African Sub-Regions," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 153-165, June.
    5. Lars Pelke, 2023. "Reanalysing the link between democracy and economic development," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 361-383, December.
    6. Qian Liu & Yingying Wang & Ning Kang, 2023. "Analyzing the Influence of BRI Foreign Direct Investment on Governance: Perspective from Southeast Asian Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(2), pages 289-305, May.

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