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Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government

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  • TREISMAN, DANIEL

Abstract

How does democracy emerge from authoritarian rule? Certain influential theories contend that incumbents deliberately choose to share or surrender power. They do so to prevent revolution, motivate citizens to fight wars, incentivize governments to provide public goods, outbid elite rivals, or limit factional violence. Examining the history of all democratizations since 1800, I show that such deliberate-choice arguments may help explain up to about one-third of the cases. In more than two-thirds, the evidence suggests that democratization occurred not because incumbents chose it but because, while trying to prevent it, they made mistakes that weakened their hold on power. Rather than being granted by farsighted elites or forced on them by the rise of new classes, democracy appears to have spread most often because of incumbents’ missteps that triggered previously latent factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 792-810, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:3:p:792-810_12
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2024. "The Political Economics of Non-democracy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 594-636, June.
    2. Eberhardt, Markus, 2022. "Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Jacob Gerner Hariri & Asger Mose Wingender, 2023. "Jumping the Gun: How Dictators Got Ahead of Their Subjects," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(650), pages 728-760.
    4. Fabio Monteforte & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2020. "The autocratic gamble: evidence from robust variance tests," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 363-384, December.
    5. Lacroix, Jean & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Sekkat, Khalid, 2021. "Democratic transitions can attract foreign direct investment: Effect, trajectories, and the role of political risk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 340-357.
    6. Rivas, Javier, 2023. "Regime change and critical junctures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. González, Felipe & Muñoz, Pablo & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Lost in transition? The persistence of dictatorship mayors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Alberto Bisin & Jared Rubin & Avner Seror & Thierry Verdier, 2024. "Culture, institutions and the long divergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-40, March.
    9. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Eberhardt, Markus, 2023. "How Does Democracy Cause Growth?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Transformations of Democracy SP V 2023-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    10. Margaret Ariotti & Simone Dietrich & Joseph Wright, 2022. "Foreign aid and judicial autonomy," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 691-715, October.
    11. Vilde Lunnan Djuve & Carl Henrik Knutsen, 2024. "Economic crisis and regime transitions from within," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(3), pages 446-461, May.
    12. Park, Hyungmin, 2023. "Developmental Dictatorship and Middle Class-driven Democratisation," QAPEC Discussion Papers 20, Quantitative and Analytical Political Economy Research Centre.
    13. Gonzalez, F & Prem, M, 2021. "The Legacy of the Pinochet Regime," Documentos de Trabajo 19446, Universidad del Rosario.
    14. Gonzalez, Felipe & Coy, Felipe & Prem, Mounu & von Dessauer, Cristine, 2022. "Uncertainty from dictatorship to democracy: Evidence from business communications," SocArXiv gz934, Center for Open Science.
    15. Robert Powell, 2024. "Power sharing with weak institutions ∗," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(2), pages 186-211, April.
    16. Leininger, Julia, 2022. "International democracy promotion in times of autocratization: From supporting to protecting democracy," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2022, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

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