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Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey

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  • HEALY, ANDREW J.
  • PERSSON, MIKAEL
  • SNOWBERG, ERIK

Abstract

To paint a fuller picture of economic voters, we combine personal income records with a representative election survey. We examine three central topics in the economic voting literature: pocketbook versus sociotropic voting, the effects of partisanship on economic evaluations, and voter myopia. First, we show that voters who appear in survey data to be voting based on the national economy are, in fact, voting equally on the basis of their personal financial conditions. Second, there is strong evidence of both partisan bias and economic information in economic evaluations, but personal economic data is required to separate the two. Third, although in experiments and aggregate historical data recent economic conditions appear to drive vote choice, we find no evidence of myopia when we examine actual personal economic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Healy, Andrew J. & Persson, Mikael & Snowberg, Erik, 2017. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 771-785, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:111:y:2017:i:04:p:771-785_00
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    1. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Galle, Simon & Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal & Miguel, Edward & Posner, Daniel N & Tungodden, Bertil & Zhang, Kelly, 2021. "Elections and selfishness," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6c55s38q, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe‐Ojong & Thomas Heckelei & Sebastian Rasch, 2023. "Aspirations and investments in livestock: Evidence of aspiration failure in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(5), pages 674-696, September.
    3. Avdeenko, Alexandra, 2018. "Long-term evidence of retrospective voting: A natural experiment from the German Democratic Republic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 83-107.
    4. Ganslmeier, Michael, 2023. "Are Campaign Promises Effective?," EconStor Preprints 274069, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Georgios Marios & María Dolores, 2024. "Identifying the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in UK general elections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 267-289.
    6. Brännlund, Anton, 2021. "Zero per cent accountability? How low interest rates save governments from electoral defeats," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Deniz Güvercin & Adem Gök, 2023. "Does Economic Growth Bound Political Rights in Non-democracies? An Empirical Evaluation," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 265-295, August.
    8. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    9. Richard Upward & Peter Wright, 2023. "Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour," Discussion Papers 2023-17, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    10. Elisabeth Grewenig & Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2019. "Do Party positions affect the public's policy preferences?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7579, CESifo.
    11. Dieter Stiers, 2022. "Performance voting, retrospective voting, and economic voting. Conceptual clarity and empirical testing," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 399-408, March.
    12. Jeong Hyun Kim & Min Hee Seo & Betsy Sinclair, 2021. "Local Weather Effects: Perception of Climate Change and Public Support for Government Intervention," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 881-896, March.
    13. Drinkwater, Stephen & Blackaby, David H. & Robinson, Catherine, 2024. "What Mattered Most in the Brexit Vote? Evidence from Detailed Regression and Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 16841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Jan Gromadzki & Katarzyna Sałach & Michał Brzeziński, 2024. "When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 320-345, January.
    15. Lee, Neil & Pardy, Martina & Mcneil, Andrew, 2024. "The political impact of inflation: a survey experiment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Brännlund, Anton & Peterson, Lauri, 2024. "Power politics: How electric grievances shape election outcomes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Bernt Bratsberg & Andreas Kotsadam & Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum & Oddbjørn Raaum, 2019. "Election Turnout Inequality - Insights from Administrative Registers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7465, CESifo.
    18. Filipe R Campante & Davin Chor & Bingjing Li, 2023. "The Political Economy Consequences of China’s Export Slowdown," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 1721-1771.
    19. Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr. & Heckelei, Thomas & Baylis, Kathy & Rasch, Sebastian, 2023. "Cooperative membership and exposure to role models: Implications for income and asset aspirations," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr & Heckelei, Thomas & Rasch, Sebastian, 2022. "Aspirations and Investments in Livestock: Evidence of an aspiration failure in Kenya," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Kiernan Fiona, 2019. "Public policy failure in healthcare: The effect of salary reduction for new entrant consultants on recruitment in public hospitals," Administration, Sciendo, vol. 67(2), pages 95-112, May.
    22. Meya, Johannes & Poutvaara, Panu & Schwager, Robert, 2020. "Pocketbook voting, social preferences, and expressive motives in referenda," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 185-205.
    23. Tabe-Ojong, Jr., Martin Paul & Godana, Guyo, 2022. "Are Agro-clusters Pro-Poor? Evidence from Ethiopia," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322432, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    24. Kaba, Mustafa, 2022. "Who buys vote-buying? How, how much, and at what cost?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 98-124.
    25. Sung Eun Kim & Sujin Cha, 2022. "Do Voters Reward Politicians for Trade Liberalization? Evidence from South Korea," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 751-780, October.

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