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Economic Development, Mobility, and Political Discontent: An Experimental Test of Tocqueville’s Thesis in Pakistan

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  • HEALY, ANDREW
  • KOSEC, KATRINA
  • MO, CECILIA HYUNJUNG

Abstract

We consider the thesis of Alexis de Tocqueville (1856) that economic development and increased mobility may generate political discontent not present in more stagnant economies. For many citizens, as they become aware of the potential for improved living standards, their aspirations may increase faster than actual living standards. Expanded opportunity may then paradoxically result in dissatisfaction with government rather than greater confidence. We develop a formal model to capture Tocqueville’s (1856) verbal theory and test its predictions using a 2012–2013 face-to-face survey experiment conducted in Pakistan. The experiment utilizes established treatments to subtly manipulate either a participant’s perceptions of her own economic well-being, her perceptions of society-wide mobility, or both. As predicted by the theory, political discontent rises when declining personal well-being coincides with high mobility to create unrealized aspirations. The results thus identify the conditions under which expanded economic opportunity can lead to political unrest.

Suggested Citation

  • Healy, Andrew & Kosec, Katrina & Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung, 2017. "Economic Development, Mobility, and Political Discontent: An Experimental Test of Tocqueville’s Thesis in Pakistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 605-621, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:111:y:2017:i:03:p:605-621_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Katrina Kosec & Kamiljon Akramov & Bakhrom Mirkasimov & Jie Song & Hongdi Zhao, 2022. "Aspirations and women's empowerment: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 101-134, January.
    2. Marino, Maria & Iacono, Roberto & Mollerstrom, Johanna, 2023. "(Mis-)perceptions, information, and political polarization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119268, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Sung Soo Lim, 2020. "The Effects of Chronic Illness on Aspirations and Subjective Wellbeing," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 1771-1793, June.
    4. Kosec, Katrina & Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung & Schmidt, Emily & Song, Jie, 2021. "Perceptions of relative deprivation and women’s empowerment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Yashodhan Ghorpade & Patricia Justino, 2019. "Winning or buying hearts and minds?: Cash transfers and political attitudes in Pakistan," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-91, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Caroline T. Witte & Martijn J. Burger & Elena Ianchovichina, 2020. "Subjective Well‐Being and Peaceful Uprisings," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 120-158, February.
    7. Chen, Joyce & Kosec, Katrina & Mueller, Valerie, 2019. "Moving to despair? Migration and well-being in Pakistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 186-203.
    8. Mequanint B. Melesse & Amos Nyangira Tirra & Yabibal M. Walle & Michael Hauser, 2023. "Understanding the Determinants of Aspirations in Rural Tanzania: Does Financial Literacy Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(6), pages 1294-1321, December.

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