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Demography and Democracy: A Global, District-level Analysis of Electoral Contestation

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  • GERRING, JOHN
  • PALMER, MAXWELL
  • TEORELL, JAN
  • ZARECKI, DOMINIC

Abstract

According to the classical perspective, polity size and democracy are inversely related. In this article, we argue that there is an important exception that manifests itself at the district level in settings where multiparty competition is allowed. Specifically, we find that larger districts encourage greater contestation. This results from a little-noticed mechanical effect as well as from several features of constituencies that are affected by size and have direct repercussions for contestation. To demonstrate this thesis we assembled a unique dataset, the Multi-level Election Archive (MLEA), which unites electoral contests across a variety of districts (national, regional, and local) and elective offices from the eighteenth century to the present, including a total of 88 countries, 2,344 elections, 79,658 districts, and more than 400,000 contests. With this evidence we were able to conduct a broad array of statistical tests, some global and others focused on particular countries or election types, all of which support our general argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerring, John & Palmer, Maxwell & Teorell, Jan & Zarecki, Dominic, 2015. "Demography and Democracy: A Global, District-level Analysis of Electoral Contestation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 574-591, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:109:y:2015:i:03:p:574-591_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucardi, Adrián, 2019. "The Effect of District Magnitude on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments in Argentina," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 557-577, April.
    2. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Bernard Grofman, 2016. "The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867–2011," Studies in Political Economy, in: Maria Gallego & Norman Schofield (ed.), The Political Economy of Social Choices, pages 93-122, Springer.
    3. Sajad Rahimian, 2021. "The Determinants of Democracy Revisited: An Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2103.04255, arXiv.org.

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