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Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

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  • ASHWORTH, SCOTT
  • CLINTON, JOSHUA D.
  • MEIROWITZ, ADAM
  • RAMSAY, KRISTOPHER W.

Abstract

In “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” Robert Pape (2003) presents an analysis of his suicide terrorism data. He uses the data to draw inferences about how territorial occupation and religious extremism affect the decision of terrorist groups to use suicide tactics. We show that the data are incapable of supporting Pape's conclusions because he “samples on the dependent variable.”—The data only contain cases in which suicide terror is used. We construct bounds (Manski, 1995) on the quantities relevant to Pape's hypotheses and show exactly how little can be learned about the relevant statistical associations from the data produced by Pape's research design.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashworth, Scott & Clinton, Joshua D. & Meirowitz, Adam & Ramsay, Kristopher W., 2008. "Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 269-273, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:102:y:2008:i:02:p:269-273_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandon M. Boylan, 2016. "What drives ethnic terrorist campaigns? A view at the group level of analysis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 250-272, July.
    2. Jonathan P. Kastellec & Jeffrey R. Lax, 2008. "Case Selection and the Study of Judicial Politics," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3), pages 407-446, September.
    3. Amir Sabri & Günther G. Schulze, 2021. "Are suicide terrorists different from ‘regular militants’?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 155-181, July.
    4. Kiran M. Sarma & Sarah L. Carthy & Katie M. Cox, 2022. "Mental disorder, psychological problems and terrorist behaviour: A systematic review and meta‐analysis," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), September.
    5. Marco Alfano & Joseph‐Simon Görlach, 2024. "Terrorism and education: Evidence from instrumental variables estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 906-925, August.
    6. Nilay Saiya & Anthony Scime, 2015. "Explaining religious terrorism: A data-mined analysis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 487-512, November.
    7. William F. Shughart, 2011. "Terrorism in Rational Choice Perspective," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Kosuke Imai & Teppei Yamamoto, 2010. "Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error: Nonparametric Identification and Sensitivity Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 543-560, April.

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