IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cuf/journl/y2024v25i1li.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-estimating the Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy from A Provincial Perspective by Correcting Two Biases

Author

Listed:
  • Zhan Li

    (School of Economics and Management, Anhui Normal University)

Abstract

This paper accepts the way adopted by the official statistics for constructing price indices at sectoral level across provinces and reconstructs provincial output data by reconciling the GDP totals reported in provincial statistical yearbooks and the industry structure in provincial input-output tables. The average annual growth rate of real GDP in the Chinese economy over 1992-2018 is 7.7% based on the preferable double and Tornqvist aggregation approach, which is 1.8 percentage points below the official claimed 9.5%. The alternative estimates show significant volatility of the growth, hence providing much more useful information than the remarkably smoothed official series.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan Li, 2024. "Re-estimating the Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy from A Provincial Perspective by Correcting Two Biases," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 327-344, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2024:v:25:i:1:li
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://down.aefweb.net/AefArticles/aef250111Li.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Chinese Economy; Provincial Perspective; Double Deflation; Tornqvist Aggregation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2024:v:25:i:1:li. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Qiang Gao (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emcufcn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.