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Portfolio Selection under Parameter Uncertainty using a Predictive Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Ji Jung Im

    (Department of Mathematics, Pohang University of Science and Technology)

  • Hyun Soo Lim

    (Department of Mathematics, Pohang University of Science and Technology)

  • Sung sub Choi

    (Department of Mathematics, Pohang University of Science and Technology)

  • Denis Nikitin

Abstract

We propose a portfolio selection model based on a generalized hyperbolic predictive distribution. This distribution incorporates uncertainties in mean and volatility of market returns. We then select an optimal portfolio with expected utility calculated under the predictive distribution. We demonstrate the performance of the new approach by applying it to simulated and real market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji Jung Im & Hyun Soo Lim & Sung sub Choi & Denis Nikitin, 2007. "Portfolio Selection under Parameter Uncertainty using a Predictive Distribution," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(2), pages 305-312, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2007:v:8:i:2:p:305-312
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    2. Yihong Xia, 2001. "Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 205-246, February.
    3. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 279-292, September.
    4. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    5. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Pei Pei, 2010. "Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights," Caepr Working Papers 2010-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Pei Pei, 2010. "Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    3. Zaichao Du & Pei Pei, 2020. "Backtesting portfolio value‐at‐risk with estimated portfolio weights," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 605-619, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio Selection; Parameter Uncertainty; Estimation Error; Bayesian Framework; Predictive Distribution; Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution; Utility Function; Utility Restoration Ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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