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análisis de la viabilidad de la utilización de índices comerciales de concesionarios de automóviles como indicadores predictores de crisis económicas: estudio de caso comparativo de doble entrada

Author

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  • oscar-luis gutiérrez-aragón

    (Escola Universitària Mediterrani. Área de Empresa. Centro adscrito a la Universitat de Girona)

  • Joan-Francesc Fondevila-gascón

    (Escola Universitària Mediterrani. Área de Empresa. Centro adscrito a la Universitat de Girona)

  • Pedro Mir-bernal

    (Universidad de Navarra. Departamento de Economía y Empresa)

Abstract

In the present research we make a comparative study in detail of the evolution of several commercial indicators linked to the activity of the car dealers located in territories economically depressed during the crises of 1993 and 2008, as well as an analysis of the evo-lution in the same periods of its financial results and of various socioeconomic variables, at national and local levels, that could affect its activity. It is concluded that the observation and systematic analysis of the deterioration of these data in the pre-crisis phases should help to predict the coming of an economic crisis that will affect to other economic sectors and more favoured geographical areas.

Suggested Citation

  • oscar-luis gutiérrez-aragón & Joan-Francesc Fondevila-gascón & Pedro Mir-bernal, 2019. "análisis de la viabilidad de la utilización de índices comerciales de concesionarios de automóviles como indicadores predictores de crisis económicas: estudio de caso comparativo de doble entrada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 42(119), pages 153-172, Mayo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cud:journl:v:42:y:2019:i:119:p:153-172
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic crisis; Spain; Automotive industry; Vehicle dealer; Prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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