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Problemas relacionados con las encuestas preelectorales desde una perspectiva comparada

Author

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  • Michael W. Traugott

    (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor)

Abstract

Public opinion polls are one of the most important foundations of modern democracy and give citizens a voice in the debates on laws, policies and regulations. However, there are practical problems in taking scientific polls. Some of these involve the data-gathering technologies. Others relate to the ability to reach sampled respondents in an increasingly shorter period of time, to the complexities of designing questions that measure the opinions and behavior of individuals with the least bias possible, and to the changes in the electoral systems, which have a direct impact on the accuracy of pre-election polls. This article discusses some errors in estimation that have occurred in this type of polling in different parts of the world and analyzes some of the possible causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. Traugott, 2015. "Problemas relacionados con las encuestas preelectorales desde una perspectiva comparada," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, vol. 0(138), pages 7-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpt:journl:v::y:2015:i:138:p:7-46
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    elections; surveys; public opinion; communications media; methodology issues;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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