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Métodos alternativos para la estimación de resultados electorales

Author

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  • Michael W. Traugott

    (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor)

Abstract

When voting is voluntary and there are run-off elections, predicting election results has meant resorting to more complex tools than just surveys asking who voters prefer. This article discusses the new tools that have been developed and discusses the advantages and disadvantages in the different ways each has been used.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. Traugott, 2015. "Métodos alternativos para la estimación de resultados electorales," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, vol. 0(137), pages 7-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpt:journl:v::y:2015:i:137:p:7-42
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    File URL: https://estudiospublicos.cl/index.php/cep/article/view/206/218
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bunker, Kenneth, 2020. "A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1407-1419.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    elections; surveys; public opinion; voluntary vote; likely electorate; election forecast; mass media;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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