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Opportunism and Election Timing by Canadian Provincial and Federal Governments

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  • Vaughan Dickson
  • Mike Farnworth
  • Jue Zhang

Abstract

We investigate election timing by Canadian provincial and federal governments from 1976 to 2008. Using monthly data, our provincial regressions indicate that lower unemployment and the prospect of increasing unemployment spur election calls. Our federal regressions also suggest that lower unemployment triggers elections and the effect is stronger at the federal level than at the provincial level. We present evidence that US monthly unemployment rates are lower before Canadian variable-date federal elections but are not lower before US fixed-date elections. This finding further indicates that Canadian politicians have used our variable-date election system to exploit favourable conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaughan Dickson & Mike Farnworth & Jue Zhang, 2013. "Opportunism and Election Timing by Canadian Provincial and Federal Governments," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(1), pages 101-118, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:39:y:2013:i:1:p:101-118
    DOI: 10.3138/CPP.39.1.101
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. J. Stephen Ferris & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2012. "Fixed versus Flexible Election Cycles: Explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s Election Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 12-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    3. J. Stephen Ferris & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2017. "Fixed versus flexible election terms: explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s election cycle," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 117-141, June.
    4. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    5. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    6. Arija Prieto, Pablo & Antonini, Marcello & Ammi, Mehdi & Genie, Mesfin & Paolucci, Francesco, 2024. "Political determinants of COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine rollouts: The case of regional elections in Italy and Spain," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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