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Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico

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  • Julio César Alonso
  • Diego Alexánder Martínez Quintero

Abstract

Este artículo busca determinar el efecto del precio del petróleo sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada uno de los países que integran la Alianza del Pacífico (AP). Se emplea un modelo VAR estructural y datos trimestrales que permiten concluir que existe una relación de largo plazo entre el precio internacional del petróleo y el PIB en cada uno de los países miembro de la AP. Se encuentra que un aumento inesperado en los precios del petróleo no afecta el nivel de actividad económica en Perú. Para Chile, un importador neto de petróleo, el efecto de choque similar genera un aumento en el PIB, contrario a lo que se esperaría teóricamente. Para México y Colombia, exportadores netos de petróleo, el efecto de un choque positivo inesperado en el precio de petróleo es positivo sobre el PIB: en Colombia, el efecto positivo se observa para los primeros seis trimestres, mientras que para México solo está presente en el segundo y tercer trimestre. La heterogeneidad en la respuesta de estos países a choques en el precio del petróleo muestra los grandes retos que implicará la coordinación de la política económica entre los países miembro de la AP.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio César Alonso & Diego Alexánder Martínez Quintero, 2017. "Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(2), pages 249-264, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:016367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Óscar Hernán Cerquera Losada & Stefany Alejandra Marín Muñoz & William Polania Gómez, 2018. "Relación entre el precio del petróleo y la gasolina para Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 10(2), pages 373-387, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alianza del Pacífico; precio del petróleo; PIB; series de tiempo; VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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