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Análisis de la heurística en la contratación empresarial a través de una cartera de derivados reales

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Bou Ysas
  • Magda Cayón Costa
  • Albert Hernández

Abstract

Dada la situación actual y partiendo del supuesto que como herramienta para una correcta política de empleo la legislación laboral debe sentar las bases sólidas para que en el momento de recuperación económica se generen puestos de trabajo estables, se presenta un modelo de simulación de contratación que nos va a permitir un análisis de sensibilidad de las distintas variables a tener en cuenta en una regulación del mercado laboral. El modelo consiste en asimilar el comportamiento del empresario al del propietario de una cartera de inversión compuesta por dos derivados reales, un swap y una opción de venta americana. Este modelo nos permite, por un lado, hacer un análisis de sensibilidad de las diferentes variables que intervienen en la contratación, y, por otro lado, analizar los efectos que la última reforma laboral espanola tiene sobre la decisión de contratar del empresario. Los resultados son claros, la variable que más sensibilidad presenta sobre la contratación es la cuota patronal de la seguridad social, y aplicando los cambios propuestos en esta última reforma laboral, se concretan estos efectos y también se concluye que la reducción de los costes de despido no acelera la decisión de contratar.******Departing from the notion that labour legislation should be founded in the generation of job stability a model for recruitment is presented in which the employer is likened to the holder of an investment portfolio containing two real derivatives ¿ swap or the option of sale. This model allows us on one hand to analyze sensitivity to the variables that are at play in an employment contract and, on the other, look at the effects that the most recent reforms in Spanish labour laws have had on contracting decisions made by employers. The results are clear: social security benefits are shown to be the most sensitive variable on the work contract, and applying the changes proposed in the latest labour reforms, this effect is upheld. The study concludes that reducing the costs of dismissal does not increase the likelihood of employers¿ taking on new staff.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Bou Ysas & Magda Cayón Costa & Albert Hernández, 2014. "Análisis de la heurística en la contratación empresarial a través de una cartera de derivados reales," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 6(1), pages 73-94, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:012133
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gomez, Sandalio & Contreras, Ignacio & Garcia, Lola, 2008. "Las reformas laborales en España y su impacto real en el mercado de trabajo en el periodo 1985-2008," IESE Research Papers D/764, IESE Business School.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demanda laboral; contrato laboral; derivados reales; modelo de simulación.*********Keywords: Labour demand; work contract; real derivatives; simulation model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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