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Flujos netos de capital, choques macroeconómicos y activos de reservas. El caso argentino (1994-2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Luis N. Lanteri

Abstract

Siguiendo la economía del crimen según Becker (1968) y Ehrlich (1973) —incluyendo el efecto del flujo migratorio— se analiza por qué algunos individuos eligen estratégica, racional —y contingentemente— participar en “parainstituciones” ilegales de invasión de tierras en Cali, desde la década de 1950. Para esto se modelará la eficiencia de la justicia con el fin de desincentivar las invasiones realizando simulaciones —ancladas a parámetros reales calibrados de la población relevante— de sanciones y probabilidades de aprehensión y castigo disuasorios bajo tres “parainstituciones”: dinastía invasora, invasión organizada e invasión contingente (flujo migratorio endógeno). Esto permitirá calibrar la línea de indiferencia (división) entre individuos con conductas invasoras (e incentivos a la ilegalidad) y no invasoras. Finalmente, se formulará una propuesta de política que ayude a corregir las ineficiencias detectadas en los mecanismos sancionatorios, si es el caso.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis N. Lanteri, 2014. "Flujos netos de capital, choques macroeconómicos y activos de reservas. El caso argentino (1994-2013)," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:012049
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reservas internacionales; flujos netos de capital; choques macroeconómicos; modelos de VEC; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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