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El mercado mundial del café : efectos del retiro de países importadores de la OIC

Author

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  • Carlos Felipe Jaramillo

Abstract

Hasta la fecha no se han elaborado modelos económicos que puedan explicar las posibles consecuencias del retiro de algún país miembro de la Organización Internacional del Café (OIC). Un ejercicio de este tipo podría ser útil en el futuro cercano, dado que el respaldo a la OIC por parte de algunos países consumidores se ha debilitado notablemente. Este trabajo apunta a llenar este vacío con una formulación ad hoc que sólo pretende ser una primera aproximación al tema. El modelo que se presenta en este artículo parte de una situación inicial definida como el estado del mercado internacional del café en 1982. Los resultados que produce el modelo son estimaciones de los efectos que puede causar el retiro de un miembro importador sobre el precio internacional, los volúmenes importados, los ingresos por exportaciones, los costos de las importaciones y el cambio en el bienestar económico de cuatro grupos de actores. El modelo teórico del mercado mundial del café utilizado en este trabajo se describe en la siguiente sección, junto con los supuestos esenciales, los datos necesarios y las formas funcionales de las ecuaciones del modelo. La tercera sección explica las tres situaciones supuestas con posterioridad al retiro de un país importador miembro. La cuarta sección contiene los resultados de la aplicación del modelo a los casos del retiro de tres países representativos. La quinta sección resume los efectos sobre el bienestar económico causados por el retiro de cualquier nación importadora. En la sexta sección se presenta una aplicación de la teoría de juegos para simular la decisión del retiro de cualquier país importador. Por último, las conclusiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, 1986. "El mercado mundial del café : efectos del retiro de países importadores de la OIC," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 16(4), pages 179-194, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herrmann, Roland, 1986. "Free riders and the redistributive effects of international commodity agreements: The Case of Coffeee," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 597-621.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía Cafetera; Mercado Cafetero; Modelos Económicos; Modelos de Simulación; Organización Internacional del Café; Café; Convenios Internacionales del Café;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q27 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade

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