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El manejo de las bonanzas de exportación: el caso del café

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  • John T. Cuddington

Abstract

“Las variaciones en el precio de los productos básicos ocupan nuevamente el primer lugar entre las preocupaciones de los gobernantes de muchos países en desarrollo. Los precios de muchos de los productos básicos de exportación se han mantenido sorprendentemente bajos para el nivel de expansión económica mundial. El objetivo de este artículo consiste en discutir las opciones de política abiertas a estos países, dado el supuesto de que el aumento en el precio mundial es un fenómeno temporal. Muchos de estos países han permitido también que los controles de precios y de tasas de cambio den origen a desviaciones sustanciales con respecto a sus niveles de mercado libre, desestimulando la asignación eficiente de los recursos y volviendo más complejos los problemas de ajuste ante las bajas posteriores en los precios de exportación. Los países que manejaron de manera positiva los cambios favorables en sus términos de intercambio fueron típicamente aquellos que: (i) no permitieron que los precios sufrieran distorsiones significativas, (ii) no se entregaron a despilfarrar los recursos en inversiones ineficientes o que habrían de generar pesadas cargas financieras en el futuro cercano, (iii) limitaron los aumentos en el gasto público a niveles consistentes con las tendencias de largo plazo que mostraba la recaudación de ingresos y (iv) mantuvieron políticas prudentes de endeudamiento externo y de reservas internacionales. De otro lado, un mal uso de esas divisas adicionales podría fácilmente minar los es fuerzas ya realizados con miras a lograr un ajuste estructural. Este artículo pone de relieve la importancia de las lecciones aprendidas de la pasada bonanza cafetera de 1976-80 en Colombia, incluyendo ejemplos de otros países."

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Cuddington, 1988. "El manejo de las bonanzas de exportación: el caso del café," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 18(2), pages 281-303, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
    2. John Cuddington, 1986. "Bonanzas de productos básicos, estabilización macroeconómica y reforma comercial en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 5(10), pages 45-100, December.
    3. Neary, J Peter & van Wijnbergen, S, 1984. "Can an Oil Discovery Lead to a Recession? A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 390-395, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sven Wunder, 1992. "La enfermedad holandesa y el caso colombiano," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 22(1), pages 167-190, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coyuntura Económica Andina; Bonanza Cafetera; Precios del Café; Café; Exportaciones de Café; Política Cafetera; Economía Cafetera; Modelos Macroeconómicos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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