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Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana

Author

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  • Santiago Herrera

Abstract

“En el trabajo "Una evaluación de la situación fiscal colombiana", publicado en la Coyuntura Económica de junio, José Antonio Ocampo examina el tema de si el déficit fiscal es excesivo o no. El documento es una valiosa contribución al debate económico del país, ya que es el único trabajo de carácter técnico, de público acceso, que se conoce como sustento de los actuales lineamientos de la política fiscal en Colombia. En este sentido, el autor merece un reconocimiento al plasmar, en blanco y negro, su interpretación de lo que es un manejo realista y coherente de las finanzas del Estado. En términos generales, el documento es intensivo en información, presentando tal vez demasiadas cifras, pero ello obedece a la cantidad de temas que buscaba abarcar. Por la misma razón, falta profundidad y sustentación en algunas argumentaciones y en varias secciones se emplean metodologías que no coinciden con las prácticas internacionales ni con las de otros documentos ya efectuados en Colombia, por lo que necesitarían una mayor discusión. Todo lo anterior hace que el trabajo sea confuso, aunque el hilo conductor emerge claramente en la conclusión y es que "...el ajuste fiscal deberá ser gradual...", debido a supuestas rigideces existentes en el manejo de recursos y al temor de que una política fiscal austera acentúe la coyuntura recesiva. Según Ocampo no hay necesidad de actuar rápida y drásticamente, ya que "...los bajos niveles de endeudamiento representan una fortaleza de la situación fiscal en Colombia y ofrecen un margen de maniobra mientras se llevan a cabo las reformas estructurales necesarias". En estas notas se mostrará cómo las limitaciones en el manejo de recursos senaladas por Ocampo no son operantes. En segundo término se expondrán los argumentos, con su respectiva evidencia, de cómo la política fiscal austera puede llevar a la expansión del producto, desvirtuando la preocupación de que con un ajuste fiscal se acentúe la recesión. Finalmente se comentarán algunos aspectos metodológicos y contradicciones de este documento con otros que tratan temas similares.”

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Herrera, 1997. "Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013524
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Santiago Herrera, 1997. "El tipo de cambio real y la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de largo plazo en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finanzas Públicas; Déficit Fiscal; Sector Público; Política Fiscal; Crisis Fiscal; Transferencias Territoriales; Subsidios; Presupuesto Nacional; Gasto Público; Ajuste Fiscal; Comentarios; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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