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La reforma laboral de 2002 y la dinámica del empleo industrial en Colombia

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  • Carlos Andrés Yanes Guerra

Abstract

Este artículo analiza el efecto de la reforma laboral plasmada en la Ley 789 de 2002 sobre la dinámica del empleo industrial en Colombia. Las estimaciones para el cálculo de este efecto se realizan a partir de la ecuación empleo-producto. Esta involucra las partes de un modelo estructural de series de tiempo, cuya principal particularidad es la adopción del algoritmo del filtro de Kalman, que permite descomponer la evolución del empleo industrial por choques que suelen ser observables (y a veces no) y que cambian a lo largo del tiempo. La metodología empleada es distinta a los enfoques tradicionales, que hacen más énfasis en el largo plazo. Los resultados muestran que el efecto de la Ley 789 sobre la generación del empleo fue poco o nulo, y que el empleo ha estado influenciado principalmente por el comportamiento del producto de las firmas industriales y por el nivel de empleo en el pasado inmediato.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Andrés Yanes Guerra, 2018. "La reforma laboral de 2002 y la dinámica del empleo industrial en Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 12(1), pages 7-35, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:018499
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reforma laboral; empleo; industria; modelo estructural de series de tiempo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy

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