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Will the Poor of Today be the Poor of Tomorrow? The Determinants of Poverty and Vulnerability in Cartagena, Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Rueda
  • Aarón Espinosa

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution and causes of poverty in Cartagena, Colombia, during the period 2002-2005. We use a probabilistic model (probit) to identify the individual characteristics that explain the incidence of poverty in the city. We also examine the concept of vulnerability, defined as the possibility that future levels of consumption may be below the poverty line. We find that poverty by income has diminished but continues to affect a significant proportion of the local population. Labor variables and household structure (for example, the presence of children) are the most important factors in explaining the incidence of poverty in Cartagena. However, vulnerability is greater than poverty itself, so that most of the city´s population face a latent risk that their living conditions may worsen.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Rueda & Aarón Espinosa, 2010. "Will the Poor of Today be the Poor of Tomorrow? The Determinants of Poverty and Vulnerability in Cartagena, Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 4(1), pages 47-71, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:007446
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jhorland Ayala García & Adolfo Meisel Roca, 2016. "La exclusión en los tiempos del auge: El caso de Cartagena," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 10(2), pages 7-43, December.
    2. Jhorland Ayala García & Adolfo Meisel Roca, 2017. "Cartagena libre de pobreza extrema en el 2033," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 15640, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    3. Jorge Campos Perez, 2012. "Planning for Climate Change in Cartagena, Colombia: Institutionalizing Alternative Approaches," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 6(2), pages 53-96, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; vulnerability; probit model; household consumption; Cartagena; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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