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Los ciclos económicos en ALALC o ALADI, CAN, CAFTA, MCCA: 1960-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Martínez R., Luis Esteban
  • Hurtado R., Álvaro
  • Builes, Francisco
  • Calle, Natalia
  • Vásquez B., Fredy

Abstract

Resumen: El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los ciclos económicos de los países que firman los tratados comerciales ALAC o ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA y CAN, con el fin de encontrar argumentos que demuestren o contradigan una posible sincronización de los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica. Se realiza el análisis a través de dos metodologías, la primera, estudia las correlaciones del ciclo económico, para la cual, se hace uso del filtro de Hodrick y Prescott (HP) para extraer el componente de tendencia de las series y la segunda, por medio de una medida no paramétrica denominada índice de concordancia presentado por Harding y Pagan (1999). En síntesis, se encuentran relaciones interesantes entre algunos de sus miembros, pero sus vínculos no son lo suficientemente fuertes para hablar de un ciclo común, por esta razón se puede afirmar que no se presentan indicios de sincronización económica en los tratados analizados.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez R., Luis Esteban & Hurtado R., Álvaro & Builes, Francisco & Calle, Natalia & Vásquez B., Fredy, 2012. "Los ciclos económicos en ALALC o ALADI, CAN, CAFTA, MCCA: 1960-2008," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 20, pages 127-153, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:014742
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sincronización; Ciclos Económicos; Exportaciones; Tratados Comerciales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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