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Dinámica y sostenibilidad de la deuda pública colombiana: ¿Existe margen para una política fiscal contra-cíclica?

Author

Listed:
  • Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto
  • Galvis G., Diana
  • Quintero S., Bayron

Abstract

Resumen: este artículo muestra la evolución de la deuda pública colombiana enel período 1980-2008. Como en América Latina, la relación deuda-PIB en Colombia se redujo en los últimos cinco o seis anos. Esta reducción, por lo menos, en el caso colombiano se explica más como resultado de condiciones macroeconómicas internas y un contexto internacional favorable, que como consecuencia de la política fiscal propiamente dicha. En un escenario relativamente optimista, la conclusión principal es que debido al nivel relativamente alto de deuda pública del Gobierno Nacional Central que tiene el país, en relación con el existente a finales de la década de los noventa, el margen para una política fiscal contra-cíclica en la actual coyuntura de crisis internacional es muy estrecho, si se desea preservar la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública. Las políticas fiscales contra-cíclicas tienen límites, puesto que no pueden comprometer la estabilidad macroeconómica en el mediano o largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto & Galvis G., Diana & Quintero S., Bayron, 2008. "Dinámica y sostenibilidad de la deuda pública colombiana: ¿Existe margen para una política fiscal contra-cíclica?," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:007029
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    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/2349/1920
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deuda pública; balance primario; sostenibilidad; política fiscal contra-cíclica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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