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Sostenibilidad de la deuda pública y crecimiento económico: el caso reciente de la economía colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • López, Mauricio
  • Castaneda, Carlos

Abstract

Resumen: este artículo realiza una evaluación de la deuda pública en Colombia, para el período comprendido entre 1990-2007. El análisis se concibe a través de los indicadores tradicionales de deuda pública y mediante el cálculo del saldo primario requerido para estabilizarla, propuesto por Blanchard (1990). El resultado es contundente, los actuales niveles de crecimiento económico, tasas de interés y balance primario no son suficientes para contar con una deuda pública sostenible. De hecho, para considerar el actual nivel de deuda pública como sostenible, se requiere una tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo para el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), levemente superior al 12%. Finalmente, ha sido el crecimiento desmedido del gasto público, en un período de crecimiento económico, lo que no ha permitido generar el superávit primario requerido para disminuir los actuales niveles de endeudamiento público

Suggested Citation

  • López, Mauricio & Castaneda, Carlos, 2008. "Sostenibilidad de la deuda pública y crecimiento económico: el caso reciente de la economía colombiana," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:005320
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    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/2340/1911
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deuda pública; sostenibilidad; intereses; gasto público;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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