IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000152/020301.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

El monitoreo del sector de la construcción en el Valle del Cauca

Author

Listed:
  • Garay Rodríguez, Seydyss

    (Universidad de los Llanos)

  • Vidal-Alejandro, Pavel

    (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana)

  • Cerón-Ordoñez, Julieth

    (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana)

Abstract

El objetivo de esta investigación es desarrollar un indicador mensual que sintetice la actividad económica del sector de la construcción en el Valle del Cauca, como herramienta de análisis del ciclo productivo y como una medida única y pública que contribuye a la toma de decisiones. Se utilizando los modelos factoriales dinámicos, el Filtro de Kalman y el método de Litterman, también usados ​​en el Índice Mensual de Actividad Económica (IMAE), con la finalidad de capturar señales, cambios en el ciclo productivo de la construcción y compilar los hechos económicos sectoriales que surgen la producción. En los resultados, se observa la dinámica de las variables sectoriales y económicas que explican el comportamiento del sector en el Valle del Cauca, en el período 2009-2020.Se observa un cambio de pendiente en 2020,

Suggested Citation

  • Garay Rodríguez, Seydyss & Vidal-Alejandro, Pavel & Cerón-Ordoñez, Julieth, 2023. "El monitoreo del sector de la construcción en el Valle del Cauca," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 42(75), pages 237-271, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:020301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/14667
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "The Basic Measures of Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Business Cycles, pages 115-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 13610, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    5. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    6. Tri Vi Dang & Gary Gorton & Bengt Holmström, 2020. "The Information View of Financial Crises," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 39-65, December.
    7. Bello, Omar & Cantú, Fernando & Acevedo, Alejandra, 2010. "Indicadores adelantados para América Latina," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5335, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Lane P. Hughston & Leandro S'anchez-Betancourt, 2020. "Pricing with Variance Gamma Information," Papers 2003.07967, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    9. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Caro S., Juan Carlos, 2008. "Indicadores de Actividad para la Inversión en Infraestructura y Vivienda [Economic indicators of Investment in Infrastructure and House]," MPRA Paper 19368, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2009.
    10. Atanu Sengupta & Sanjoy De, 2020. "Informal Banking, Trust and Mutual Reciprocity," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Assessing Performance of Banks in India Fifty Years After Nationalization, chapter 0, pages 113-132, Springer.
    11. ., 2020. "National information infrastructure," Chapters, in: The Infrastructured State, chapter 3, pages 61-81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Christof Weinhardt & Simon Kloker & Oliver Hinz & Wil M. P. Aalst, 2020. "Citizen Science in Information Systems Research," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 62(4), pages 273-277, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fina, Bernadette & Roberts, Mike B. & Auer, Hans & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain, 2021. "Exogenous influences on deployment and profitability of photovoltaics for self-consumption in multi-apartment buildings in Australia and Austria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19126, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Mazzi, Gian Luigi, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature: forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2693-2724, December.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    9. Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    10. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni & Bassanetti, Antonio, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    13. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    15. Tomohiro Ando & Ruey S. Tsay, 2009. "Model selection for generalized linear models with factor‐augmented predictors," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 207-235, May.
    16. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    17. Proietti, Tommaso, 2010. "Trend Estimation," MPRA Paper 21607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 5273, Banco de la Republica.
    21. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclo económico; análisis económico; estadísticas económicas; construcción de viviendas; indicador compuesto; indicador de actividad económica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000152:020301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Eudoro Vallejo Zamudio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.