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Expectativas semiadaptativas en los modelos macroeconómicos multiagentes. Una aplicación al análisis de la fragilidad financiera empresarial

Author

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  • Rémi Stellian
  • Jenny Paola Danna-Buitrago
  • David Andrés Londoño Bedoya

Abstract

This paper introduces a new type of expectations for agent-based modeling in macroeconomics. We convert adaptive expectations, which constitute the standard expectation mechanism in agent-based macroeconomic modeling, into semi-adaptive expectations. This new expectation mechanism takes into account the volatility in expectations in relation to the influence of feelings of optimism/pessimism on the cognition of agents. Semi-adaptive expectations are then integrated into a macroeconomic agent-based model to illustrate how they influence the financial distress of firms. Among the results, we found that firms could limit the extent of financial distress if they expect their proceeds with the highest level of volatility around an initial expectation used as a long-term quasi-reference.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémi Stellian & Jenny Paola Danna-Buitrago & David Andrés Londoño Bedoya, 2020. "Expectativas semiadaptativas en los modelos macroeconómicos multiagentes. Una aplicación al análisis de la fragilidad financiera empresarial," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 23(1), pages 65-108, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:018112
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semiadaptative expectations; macroeconomic multiagents modeling; financialfragility; numeric simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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