IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000129/020575.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Efecto de la incertidumbre de la política económica internacional sobre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Munoz Henríquez
  • Francisco Gálvez-Gamboa

Abstract

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la relación entre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos y el índice de incertidumbre de política económica de Estados Unidos y China, a través de la coherencia de Wavelet. Los resultados confirman la existencia de una relación de comovimiento entre los rendimientos de los mercados latinos y este índice; además, se identificó una correlación negativa y liderada por él sobre los retornos de mercado, entre los que destaca el EPU de Estados Unidos sobre México y Colombia en el corto y mediano plazo, y el EPU de China sobre Brasil y Perú a mediano plazo. Esto evidencia un efecto heterogéneo de la relación en los mercados financieros y el EPU. Los hallazgos proveen información relevante para la toma de decisiones respecto a la incertidumbre provocada por las grandes economías internacionales.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Munoz Henríquez & Francisco Gálvez-Gamboa, 2022. "Efecto de la incertidumbre de la política económica internacional sobre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(165), pages 519-528, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000129:020575
    DOI: 10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Zhi & Fang, Tong & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Understanding stock market volatility: What is the role of U.S. uncertainty?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 582-590.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    3. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Mondher Bellalah & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "The comovements in international stock markets: new evidence from Latin American emerging countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1323-1328.
    4. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Directional Spillover Effects Between BRICS Stock Markets and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 429-448, September.
    5. Semei Coronado & Jose N. Martinez & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2020. "Spillover effects of the US economic policy uncertainty in Latin America," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 47(2 Year 20), pages 273-293, December.
    6. Yu, Xiaoling & Huang, Yirong, 2021. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock volatility: Evidence from GARCH–MIDAS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    7. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    8. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty influence gold prices? Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-68.
    9. Das, Debojyoti & Kumar, Surya Bhushan, 2018. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices revisited: Multiple and Partial wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 100-108.
    10. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2020. "Industry volatility and economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    11. Kido, Yosuke, 2016. "On the link between the US economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 49-52.
    12. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    13. Zhou, Zhongbao & Fu, Zhangyan & Jiang, Yong & Zeng, Ximei & Lin, Ling, 2020. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict exchange rate volatility? New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    14. Jian Liu & Ziting Zhang & Lizhao Yan & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH-MIDAS model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Directional Spillover Effects Between BRICS Stock Markets and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 429-448, September.
    2. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. He, Feng & Ma, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yang, Bohan, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries' economic policy uncertainty and China's energy sector," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Yaming Ma & Ziwei Wang & Feng He, 2022. "How do economic policy uncertainties affect stock market volatility? Evidence from G7 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2303-2325, April.
    5. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2021. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 403-425, September.
    9. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    13. Liu, Tao & Guan, Xinyue & Wei, Yigang & Xue, Shan & Xu, Liang, 2023. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Zhang, Hongwei & Demirer, Riza & Huang, Jianbai & Huang, Wanjun & Tahir Suleman, Muhammad, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and gold return dynamics: Evidence from high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Dou, Yue & Li, Yiying & Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Dynamic linkages between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market: Does Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Yunus Karaömer & Arif Eser Guzel, 2024. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Returns: Analysing the Moderating Role of Government Size," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(1), pages 50-72.
    18. Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2023. "Uncertainty in the financial regulation policy and the boom of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Vamsidhar Ambatipudi & Dilip Kumar, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Versus Sector Volatility: Evidence from India Using Multi-scale Wavelet Granger Causality Analysis," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 184-210, June.
    20. Yanping Liu & Bo Yan, 2024. "Spillover effects of carbon, energy, and stock markets considering economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 563-591, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EPU; Latinoamérica; mercados financieros; Wavelet.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000129:020575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Coordinador ICESI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fciceco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.