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Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio manufacturero en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Torres García
  • Thomas Goda
  • Santiago Sánchez González

Abstract

Este trabajo es el primero en construir un índice de tasa de cambio real sectorial bilateral (TCRSB) para diecinueve subsectores manufactureros en Colombia, que considera las diferencias de cada uno de ellos en términos de sus socios comerciales y costos relativos internos y externos. Este índice es usado para determinar la importancia de la TCR en la dinámica de las exportaciones e importaciones de cada subsector para el período 2006-2013. Los resultados muestran, en primer lugar, que existe una alta heterogeneidad subsectorial en términos del comportamiento de sus respectivas TCRSB; en segundo lugar, la importancia de la TCRSB como determinante de los flujos de comercio internacional manufacturero colombiano y, finalmente, la heterogeneidad de sus sensibilidades con respecto a esta tasa. Con el fin de verificar la bondad de estas estimaciones, se hacen dos estimaciones alternativas usando índices de TCR agregados (índice de TCR bilateral y de TCR sectorial), encontrando que ninguno de ellos logra mejorar el desempeno de la TCRSB. ****** This paper is the first to construct bilateral sector-specific real effective exchange rate indices (TCRSB) for 19 manufacturing sectors in Colombia, which consider sectoral differences in terms of commercial partners and relative cost differences. These índices are used to determine the importance of the real effective exchange rate (REER) to explain sectoral export and import dynamics over the period 2006 to 2013. The results indicate a significant heterogeneity between the sectors in terms of changes in the TCRSB; the importance of the TCRSB to explain changes in Colombia’s manufacturing trade flows; and relevant differences in the price elasticity of the distinct sectors. When comparing these results with those obtained when using aggregate REER índices (i.e. a bilateral and sectoral REER index), we find that neither of these improves the performance of the TCRSB.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Torres García & Thomas Goda & Santiago Sánchez González, 2018. "Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio manufacturero en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(86), pages 193-206, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:017066
    DOI: 10.32468/espe.8603
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García & Cristhian David Larrahondo Dominguez, 2021. "Sectoral real exchange rates and manufacturing exports: A case study of Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 19286, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García & Cristhian Larrahondo, 2024. "Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1057-1082, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio real; Exportaciones; Importaciones; Comercio internacional; Real effective exchange rates (REER); Exports; Imports; Trade; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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