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La Asignación Intertemporal del Consumo en Colombia

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  • Alberto Carrasquilla

Abstract

En este trabajo se estudia la validez de la hipótesis del ingreso permanente (HIP) en el caso de Colombia. Partimos de las restricciones sugeridas por Hall (1978) respecto de las propiedades dinámicas que impone la HIP sobre las series de consumo e ingreso. Encontramos que sobre la base de pruebas econométricas convencionales la evidencia empírica es ambigua. Sugerimos que esta ambiguedad se relaciona con una excesiva tolerancia respecto de los procesos residuales de los modelos estimados. Planeamos técnicas alternativas de análisis tendientes a identificar con mayor precisión la hipótesis nula. Con base en ejercicios consecuentes, se encuentra que la HIP es válida en Colombia, operando como una restricción de largo plazo. Un shock al sistema que incorpora la HIP se absorbe casi completamente al cabo de tres anos y desaparece después de diez.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Carrasquilla, 1989. "La Asignación Intertemporal del Consumo en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 8(16), pages 67-82, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:014070
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.1603
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Nicolás Hernández A, 2006. "Revisión de los determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo total de los hogares para el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 24(52), pages 80-109, December.
    2. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 547, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Alejandro Gómez Sorzano, 1996. "Los efectos dinámicos de perturbaciones nominales sobre el PIB permanente y transitorio colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 9509, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.

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