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Evaluación de políticas públicas para la reducción de la criminalidad en Medellín: una aproximación con dinámica de sistemas

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Arango
  • John Jairo Prado
  • Isaac Dyner

Abstract

Medellín ha sido una de las ciudades más violentasdel mundo, pero la criminalidad ha venido reduciéndoseen los últimos anos. La continuidad delsendero descendiente depende de la efectividadde las políticas públicas. Esta investigación evalúapolíticas públicas, tanto preventivas como punitivas,usando un modelo en dinámica de sistemas queconsidera la carrera criminal y la teoría económicadel crimen. Los ejercicios de simulación sugieren lanecesidad de reducir el crecimiento de la poblaciónsusceptible de convertirse en criminales, aumentarlos efectivos de la fuerza pública e incrementar laduración promedio de las sentencias. Esta aproximaciónmetodológica puede ser extrapolada a casossimilares de los sistemas sociales.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Arango & John Jairo Prado & Isaac Dyner, 2009. "Evaluación de políticas públicas para la reducción de la criminalidad en Medellín: una aproximación con dinámica de sistemas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 27(60), pages 80-109, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007816
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.6003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    3. Gaviria, Alejandro, 1998. "Increasing Returns and the Evolution of Violent Crime: The Case of Columbia," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6x42726z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    4. Gaviria, Alejandro, 2000. "Increasing returns and the evolution of violent crime: the case of Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Bourguignon Francois, 2009. "Crime as a Social Cost of Poverty and Inequality: A Review Focusing on Developing countries," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    criminalidad; carrera criminal; simulación; dinámica de sistemas; pensamientosistémico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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