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Deuda externa pública e inversión en Colombia 1994-2007: evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés Eduardo Salamanca Lugo
  • Viviana del Pilar Monroy Mejía

Abstract

Este documento examina la relación existente entre la deuda externa del gobierno nacional y la inversión privada en Colombia entre 1994 y 2007, a partir del modelo de series de tiempo no lineales TAR. La estimación se realizó a través de los métodos MCMC y el enfoque bayesiano. Los resultados muestran evidencia de una relación no lineal entre las variables de estudio, explicada por el modelo TAR. Además, el análisis indica la existencia de una relación inversa entre el crecimiento de la inversión privada y el crecimiento de la deuda externa del gobierno nacional.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Eduardo Salamanca Lugo & Viviana del Pilar Monroy Mejía, 2009. "Deuda externa pública e inversión en Colombia 1994-2007: evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:006312
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    File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/51/v28n51_salamanca_2009.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Isaac Sánchez-Juárez & Rosa García-Almada, 2016. "Public Debt, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hipótesis de sobreendeudamiento; deuda externa pública; inversión; TAR; enfoque bayesiano; MCMC.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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