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Incidencias de los sectores financiero, fiscal y externo en la actividad económica colombiana: una aproximación VAR Bayesiana

Author

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  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa
  • Paola Andrea Vaca

Abstract

Este artículo analiza los posibles efectos de los diferentes choques de los sectores financiero, fiscal y externo sobre la evolución de la actividad macroeconómica de Colombia. A partir de un enfoque analítico de demanda agregada, se emplean modelos VAR Bayesianos utilizando la densidad a priori de Minnesota, con datos trimestrales para el periodo 1995-2013. A través de los análisis de impulso-respuesta y causalidades de Granger, los resultados muestran los posibles escenarios de riesgo en el crecimiento económico agregado, así como hechos estilizados respecto a relaciones entre variables de interés.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa & Paola Andrea Vaca, 2015. "Incidencias de los sectores financiero, fiscal y externo en la actividad económica colombiana: una aproximación VAR Bayesiana," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:013536
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    File URL: https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/revistadys/Articulo75_1.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impactos sectoriales de política; actividad macroeconómica; BVAR; prior de Minnesota.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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