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Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation

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  • Wei Dong

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium model, in which monetary policy is represented as a simple rule and exchange rate passthrough is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing and distribution services. We find that the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of England have not adjusted interest rates in response to exchange rate movements since the adoption of inflation targeting, while our model selection results for Australia are less clear.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:555-586
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12023
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    Cited by:

    1. Araújo, Eurilton, 2016. "Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in a small-open economy with sticky wages and prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 16-32.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2013. "Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 233-246.
    3. Eurilton Araújo & Débora Gouveia, 2013. "Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2042-2051.
    4. Moayad H. Al Rasasi, 2018. "The Response of G7 Real Exchange Rates to Oil Price Shocks," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-205, April.
    5. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence On Inflation-Targeting Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 593-630, April.
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    7. Gelfer, Sacha, 2021. "Evaluating the forecasting power of an open-economy DSGE model when estimated in a data-Rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Alstadheim, Ragna & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2021. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Ferreira, Caio Ferrari, 2020. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-87.
    10. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Is the response of the bank of England to exchange rate movements frequency-dependent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2009/234, International Monetary Fund.
    12. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    13. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2015. "Third-country effects on the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 227-243.
    14. Becksndale Masawi & Sukanto Bhattacharya & Terry Boulter, 2018. "Does the Information Content of Central Bank Speeches Impact on the Level of Exchange Rate? A Comparative Study of Canadian and Australian Central Bank Communications," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    16. Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Inflation Targeting at 20 - Achievements and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2009/236, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Alex Ilek & Guy Segal, 2022. "A Simple Theory-Based Estimate of the Real Natural Rate of Interest in Open Economies," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.06, Bank of Israel.
    18. Pongsak Luangaram & Nipit Wongpunya, 2022. "Exploring the Role of Exchange Rate in Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 179, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    20. Sergi Bruno S. & Hsing Yu, 2010. "Responses of Monetary Policy to Inflation, the Output Gap, and Real Exchange Rates: The Case of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-11, May.
    21. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv226, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    22. Luangaram, Pongsak & Wongpunya, Nipit, 2024. "The effect of trade openness and exchange rate on inflation targeting in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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