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Succès et risques des Abenomics

Author

Listed:
  • Evelyne Dourille-Feer
  • Urszula Szczerbowicz

Abstract

Lorsque Shinzo Abe se lance dans la campagne des législatives à l'automne 2012, le PIB vient d'enregistrer deux trimestres consécutifs de recul, l'investissement des entreprises se contracte dans un contexte de demande intérieure et extérieure peu dynamique, la lente érosion des prix se poursuit et les cours boursiers sont bas. Dès sa prise de fonction, le nouveau Premier ministre met en place une politique économique, appelée Abenomics par les anglo-saxons, centrée sur deux objectifs prioritaires : vaincre la déflation par une politique monétaire très accommodante et restaurer une croissance soutenue (par la relance budgétaire) et durable (par des réformes structurelles). Début 2014, le pays semble sortir progressivement de la déflation et la croissance s'est raffermie, mais la reprise reste fragile. Le succès des Abenomics dépendra essentiellement des évolutions de l'investissement et des salaires, ainsi que de la capacité du gouvernement à mettre en oeuvre les réformes nécessaires pour encourager des gains de productivité.

Suggested Citation

  • Evelyne Dourille-Feer & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2014. "Succès et risques des Abenomics," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 344.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2014-344
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2014/let344.pdf
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    Keywords

    Japon;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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