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What determines the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries?

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  • Ridha Nouira
  • Khalid Sekkat

Abstract

The paper seeks to explain the extent of real exchange rate misalignment, defined as its deviation from its equilibrium level. It enlarges the traditional analysis, which focuses mainly on the role of nominal exchange rate regimes, to consider the role of the quality of institutions and financial development. The results show that the intermediate regime induces higher and more volatile misalignment than both fixed and float. The fixed regime exhibits a pattern of misalignment similar to the float regime. Inflation pressures and dependence on oil exports are associated with more misalignment. More importantly, persistence in misalignment is an important phenomenon that should be taken into account, better quality of institutions is associated with less misalignment, while financial development seems to have no impact on misalignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ridha Nouira & Khalid Sekkat, 2015. "What determines the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 135-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2015-q1-141-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullahil Mamun & Harun Bal & Shahanara Basher & Md Mahi Uddin & Nazamul Hoque, 2023. "Growth Effects Of Currency Misalignment And Capital Flight In Turkey," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(2), pages 221-250, May.
    2. Edouard Mien, 2020. "External and Internal Real Exchange Rates and the Dutch Disease in Africa: Evidence from a Panel of Nine Oil-Exporting Countries," Working Papers hal-03013571, HAL.
    3. Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.
    4. Jorge Carrera & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon & Romain Restout, 2021. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American Countries: A Trade-Off Issue," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 141, pages 71-102.
    5. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    6. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    7. Slimani, Slah & Ben Allem, Khawla, 2018. "Determinants of real exchange rate misalignment: An empirical analysis for MENA region," MPRA Paper 91605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kadjatou Dakoure & Mahamadou Diarra & M. Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2023. "Role of the choice of exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignments in South Sahara African countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 425-455, July.
    9. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    10. Jebeniani, Jihene & Trabelsi, Jamel, 2022. "Effects of the business cycle on real exchange rate misalignments with respect to exchange rate regimes," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 92-102.
    11. Perekunah Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa & Solomon Olakojo & Mamello Nchake & Owen Nyang'oro & Edith Togba, 2016. "Nigeria: Should the Government Float or Devalue the Naira?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 247-263, September.
    12. Chen, Pei-Fen & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Renminbi exchange rate assessment and competitors' exports: New perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 187-205.
    13. Mien, Edouard, 2021. "External and internal exchange rates and the Dutch disease: Evidence from a panel of oil-exporting African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 206-228.
    14. Mohammad Hassanzadeh & Shahla Mousavi, 2023. "Real effective exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis in Iran," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    16. Slimani, Slah & Ben allem, Khaoula, 2017. "Les déterminants du misalignement du taux de change réel : Analyse empirique pour le cas de la région MENA [Determinants of misalignment of the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the MEN," MPRA Paper 81247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2020. "Real exchange rate misalignments in developing countries: The role of exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-24.
    18. Wai-Mun Har & Ai-Lian Tan & Chong-Heng Lim & Chai-Thing Tan, 2017. "Does Interest Rate Still Matter in Determining Exchange Rate?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Misalignment; Determinants; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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