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Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: An SVAR analysis

Author

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  • Miguel Ángel Saldarriaga
  • Diego Winkelried

Abstract

How do shocks originated in large economies around the globe have transmitted to the growth rates of Latin American countries? To answer this question, we propose a highly parsimonious structural VAR model, identified through bilateral trade linkages .Since trade weights evolve through time, the effects of shocks are time-varying and we are able to quantify how growth in the region has been affected by tighter trading linkages with fast-growing emerging economies, and how it has responded to a new world trade structure, featuring China as a major player. It is found that about half of the vigourous growth registered in Latin American countries by the end of the 2000s can be attributed to direct and especially indirect multiplier effects induced by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ángel Saldarriaga & Diego Winkelried, 2013. "Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: An SVAR analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 135-136, pages 13-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2013-q3-4-135-136-2
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/21107017/135
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 535-542.
    2. José Franco Iparraguirre & Fernando Cuyutupac Borja, 2020. "Impacto de los factores externos en el Producto Bruto Interno Peruano durante 1994-2018," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 2(01), pages 64-75.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin America; China; Trade linkages; Time-varying impulse-response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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