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The speculative efficiency of the aluminum market: A nonlinear Investigation

Author

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  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri
  • Fredj Jawadi
  • Prosper Mouak

Abstract

This paper studies the speculative efficiency of the aluminum contract traded in the London Metal Exchange over the last three decades. We investigate both short and long-run efficiency using linear and nonlinear cointegration approaches and Error Correction Models (ECM). Our findings point out the following points. First, futures aluminum prices are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and they do not constitute unbiased predictors of future spot prices. Second, the hypothesis of risk neutrality is rejected. Finally, the short-run efficiency hypothesis is rejected and using past futures price returns improves the modeling and forecast of future spot price. Our findings have important implications for producers, arbitrageurs, speculators as well as policymakers. As far as our knowledge allows to remember, this paper is the first attempt to test both linear and nonlinear efficiency for the aluminum market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Fredj Jawadi & Prosper Mouak, 2011. "The speculative efficiency of the aluminum market: A nonlinear Investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 73-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2011-q2-3-126-127-5
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701713600372
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaehwan Park, 2019. "Effect of Speculators’ Position Changes on the LME Futures Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-9, June.
    2. Jaehwan Park, 2019. "The Role of Canceled Warrants in the LME Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, February.
    3. Clark, Andrew, 2022. "Causality in the aluminum market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Jaehwan Park & Byungkwon Lim, 2018. "Testing Efficiency of the London Metal Exchange: New Evidence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative Efficiency; Aluminum Market; London Metal Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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