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Que faire des taux de change reels d'equilibre ?

Author

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  • Loic Cadiou

Abstract

Parmi l’ensemble des variables macro-economiques, le taux de change est peut-etre celle qui a le plus desespere les economistes. De nombreux modeles theoriques proposent des regles de comportement du taux de change, mais aucun d’entre eux n’est apparu vraiment convaincant sur le plan empirique. Face a l’echec predictif de ces modeles, une approche macro-economique s’est degagee. Elle vise avant tout a donner une valeur de reference de moyen-long terme du taux de change reel sur la base d’une analyse de l’equilibre macro-economique. Une telle approche revet un caractere normatif dans la mesure ou soit la balance courante rejoint une cible a long terme definie par ailleurs, soit l’hypothese est faite qu’elle influence directement le comportement des autorites publiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Loic Cadiou, 1999. "Que faire des taux de change reels d'equilibre ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 77, pages 67-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:1999-1td
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/ei.asp?issue=77
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Antoine Bouveret & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Les modèles de taux de change," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01071965, HAL.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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