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Amerika nach der Wahl: Was bedeutet der Sieg Donald Trumps für die USA und für Europa?

Author

Listed:
  • Harm Bandholz
  • Detlef Junker
  • Thomas Jäger
  • Holger Schmieding
  • Josef Braml
  • Stormy-Annika Mildner
  • Julia Howald

Abstract

Die überraschende Wahl von Donald Trump zum US-Präsidenten hat große Unsicherheit hervorgerufen. Sicher erscheint für Harm Bandholz, UniCredit Group, New York, im Moment nur eines: »Die Unsicherheit, die der neue Präsident mit sich bringt.« Die größte Gefahr für die Weltwirtschaft gehe von einer drohenden Zuspitzung des Protektionismus aus. Die These Detlef Junkers, Heidelberg Center for American Studies (HCA), lautet: »Trump wird uns in eine doppelte Krise führen, in eine weitere Fragmentierung der USA, zugleich in eine Schwächung und Fragmentierung des transatlantischen Westens.« Für Thomas Jäger, Universität zu Köln, ist Trump »überzeugungsflexibel« mit einem klaren Fokus auf den wirtschaftlichen Erfolg seiner Präsidentschaft. Holger Schmieding, Berenberg, befürchtet, dass der Wahlsieg Donald Trumps für Europa einschneidende Folgen haben könnte, wobei die politischen Risiken schwerer wiegen als die wirtschaftlichen Chancen. Josef Braml, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, rechnet damit, dass Donald Trumps nationalistisches Wirtschaftsprogramm die amerikanische Staatsverschuldung weiter erhöhen wird. Sollten die USA nicht rechtzeitig gegensteuern, drohe dem Land ein finanzieller Kollaps und politische Handlungsunfähigkeit, mit weitreichenden Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft. Stormy-Annika Mildner und Julia Howald, BDI, sehen in der angekündigten Handelspolitik einen herben Rückschlag für die transatlantischen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen. TTIP aufzugeben wäre eine verpasste Chance sowohl für die EU als auch die USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Harm Bandholz & Detlef Junker & Thomas Jäger & Holger Schmieding & Josef Braml & Stormy-Annika Mildner & Julia Howald, 2016. "Amerika nach der Wahl: Was bedeutet der Sieg Donald Trumps für die USA und für Europa?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(23), pages 03-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:23:p:03-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcus Noland & Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Tyler Moran & Sherman Robinson, . "Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign," PIIE Briefings, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number PIIEB16-6, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Präsidentschaftswahl; Weltwirtschaft; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; Europa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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