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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2003

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  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute

Abstract

Am 21. Oktober 2003 stellten die sechs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Sie kamen zu der Ansicht, dass die Weltwirtschaftliche Produktion seit dem letzten Frühjahr beschleunigt zunimmt. Die während der ersten Monate 2003 dämpfenden Faktoren sind entfallen, die Wirtschaftspolitik stimuliert weiter, und die Perspektiven werden günstiger beurteilt. Vorreiter der Erholung sind wieder die USA. In Japan verläuft die Entwicklung überraschend günstig, und in Südostasien wurde die Schwächephase überwunden. Während die Produktion in den EU-Beitrittsländern anhaltend kräftig stieg, verharrte der Euroraum in der Stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2003. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2003," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(20), pages 3-41, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:20:p:3-41
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Truger, Achim & Hein, Eckhard, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept : opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," WSI Working Papers 125, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    2. Grömling, Michael & Römer, Christof & Schäfer, Holger, 2003. "Konjunkturprognose 2004," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(3), pages 5-19.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
    5. Lehment, Harmen & Oskamp, Frank, 2004. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Bedingungen für einen Anstieg des Arbeitsvolumens in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3216, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Truger, Achim, 2003. "Germany's Poor Economic Performance in the Last Decade: It's the Macroeconomy, not Institutional Sclerosis," WSI Working Papers 118, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    7. Martin Meurers, 2003. "Japan - Aufschwung auf fragilem Untergrund," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(21), pages 42-51, November.
    8. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2004. "The 2004 Enlargement: Key Economic Issues," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 96-118, October.
    9. Truger, Achim, 2004. "Verteilungs- und beschäftigungspolitische Risiken aktueller Steuerreformkonzepte: Eine Analyse mit Steuerbelastungsvergleichen für konkrete Haushaltstypen," WSI Working Papers 120, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    10. Boss, Alfred & Kamps, Annette & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer, 2004. "Deutsche Konjunktur: gedämpfte Erholung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3214, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Boss, Alfred & Elendner, Thomas, 2003. "Steuerreform und Lohnsteueraufkommen in Deutschland - Simulationen auf Basis der Lohnsteuerstatistik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3126, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "Macroeconomic policies, wage developments, and Germany’s stagnation," Macroeconomics 0508015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2003. "Leasingbranche: Erholung des Geschäftsklimas, aber noch keine Belebung der Investitionstätigkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(21), pages 38-41, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltkonjunktur; Welt; Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftslage; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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