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Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse

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  • Björn Alecke
  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

Im Gegensatz zum Finanzierungsbedarf der EU-Osterweiterung sind die realwirtschaftlichen Vor- und Nachteile empirisch nur schwer zu bestimmen. In diesem Beitrag stellen Dr. Björn Alecke und Dr. Gerhard Untiedt, Gesellschaft für Finanz- und Regionalanalysen (GEFRA), Münster, die Ergebnisse der Studien vor, die versuchen, mit Hilfe von so genannten Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-Modellen die ökonomischen Auswirkungen von durch die EU-Osterweiterung induzierten Änderungen in der Handels-, Agrar- oder Strukturpolitik zu ermitteln. Drei wichtige Ergebnisse, die sich in allen Untersuchungen zeigen, sind: Erstens fallen die Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer sehr viel stärker aus als auf die gegenwärtigen EU-Mitgliedsländer. Zweitens ergeben sich auch für die gegenwärtigen Mitgliedstaaten insgesamt Wohlfahrtsgewinne. Und drittens streuen die Wohlfahrtsgewinne in den gegenwärtigen Mitgliedsländern stark in regionaler wie sektoraler Hinsicht. In der Regel zeigt sich, dass die Wohlfahrtsgewinne umso größer ausfallen, je größer die Handelsanteile der Länder bzw. Regionen mit den MOEL sind. Diese wiederum sind eine Funktion der räumlichen Nähe. Im Gegensatz zur regionalen Verteilung kann eine eindeutige Aussage zur sektoralen Verteilung der Wohlfahrtsgewinne nicht getroffen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2002. "Perspektiven der EU-Osterweiterung: Gesamt- und regionalwirtschaftliche Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(01), pages 15-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:01:p:15-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Boede & Michaela Fuchs & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35, May.
    2. Brown, D. & Deardorff & A. & Djankov, S. & Stern, R., 1995. "An Economic Assessment of the Integration of Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland into the European Union," Papers 8, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
    3. Bretschger Lucas, 1999. "Dynamik der realwirtschaftlichen Integration am Beispiel der EU-Osterweiterung / On the Dynamics of Economic Integration: The Case of the EU Eastern Enlargement," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 218(3-4), pages 276-293, June.
    4. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
    5. Black,Stanley W., 2008. "Europe's Economy Looks East," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521088237, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
    2. Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2003. "EU-Osterweiterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(22), pages 10-17, November.
    3. Grömling, Michael & Römer, Christof, 2004. "Die Wirtschaftsbeziehungen Deutschlands mit Mittel- und Osteuropa," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 9-14.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU-Erweiterung; Osteuropa; Wohlfahrtseffekt; Räumliche Verteilung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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