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AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 1999/2000

Author

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  • Hans-Dieter Karl

Abstract

Die Arbeitsgruppe Rohstoffpreise der Vereinigung Europäischer Konjunkturforschungsinstitute (AIECE) kam Ende September zu dem Ergebnis, daß das Rohstoffpreisniveau, gemessen am HWWA-Index auf Dollarbasis im Durchschnitt des Jahres 1998 kräfitg gesunken ist. Prognostiziert wurde für 1998 ein Rückgang insgesamt um 21% und für 1999 wird mit einer leichten Erholung (+1%) gerechnet. Die Entwicklung wird sehr stark von der Bewegung des Rohölpreises geprägt, der ein Gewicht von 55,5% im Gesamtindex hat. Unter Ausschluß der Energierohstoffe schätzen die Institute für dieses Jahr einen Preisrückgang um 13%, für 1999 erwarten sie, daß die Notierungen, auf Dollarbasis, nochmals um 5% nachgeben.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Dieter Karl, 1998. "AIECE-Prognose : Weltrohstoffpreise 1999/2000," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(31), pages 08-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:51:y:1998:i:31:p:08-15
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