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Die Ein-Kind-Politik rächt sich: China am demographischen Wendepunkt

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  • Felix Rösel

Abstract

Noch profitiert die chinesische Wirtschaf massiv von der Ein­Kind­Politik früherer Jahre. Die letzten geburtenstarken Jahrgänge bis Ende der 1970er Jahre stehen voll in Arbeit, es gibt vergleichsweise wenige Menschen außerhalb des Erwerbslebens zu versorgen. Ein Rekordanteil von fast zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung ist im Erwerbsalter und kann zur Wirtschaftskraft beitragen. Doch China hat nun den Wendepunkt erreicht. Das große chinesische Erwerbstätigenheer altert rapide, und deutlich mehr Beschäftigte verabschieden sich aus dem Arbeitsleben als neu eintreten. Spätestens in dreißig Jahren sind die USA aufgrund ihrer langfristig deutlich höheren Geburtenzahl im klaren demographischen Vorteil. Einem stark gealterten China stehen dann ganz schwierige Zeiten bevor.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Rösel, 2019. "Die Ein-Kind-Politik rächt sich: China am demographischen Wendepunkt," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(06), pages 27-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:26:y:2019:i:06:p:27-28
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    1. repec:ces:ifodre:v::y:2013:i::p:24-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joachim Ragnitz, 2013. "Langfristige demographische Herausforderungen in den BRICS-Ländern," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 24-31, February.
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