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Prognose 2002 : Rezession wird allmählich überwunden

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Im 2. Halbjahr 2001 ist die deutsche Wirtschaft in die Rezession geraten. Ab dem zweiten Quartal 2002 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion allmählich wieder Fahrt aufnehmen, angeregt durch eine anziehende US-Konjunktur und den Umschwung im Lagerzyklus. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2002 wird der Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit 0,6 % nochmals gering ausfallen. Die Arbeitslosenzahl wird im Frühjahr saisonbereinigt die Vier-Millionen-Schwelle überschreiten. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich im Jahr 2002 auf 1,5% verlangsamen. Ein Viertel dieser Inflationsrate ist auf Steuererhöhungen zurückzuführen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Prognose 2002 : Rezession wird allmählich überwunden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(01), pages .5-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:09:y:2002:i:01:p:s.5-14
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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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