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Is there a Beveridge curve in the short and the long run?

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  • Robert Pater

    (University of Information Technology and Management)

Abstract

The theoretical Beveridge curve has a negative slope and is convex to the origin, a relationship most often associated to the short run. However, search and matching theory indicates that certain shocks may affect unemployment and vacancies in the same way. I trace the effects of both types of shocks affecting the vacancy rate and the unemployment rate using U.S. data. I impose common factor restrictions in an unobserved component model and sign restrictions in a vector autoregressive model. I derive negatively and positively-correlated components of vacancies and unemployment. The negatively-sloped Beveridge curve is the result of an aggregate labour demand shock. This shock also causes some more long-lasting effects for vacancies and unemployment, the ‘loops’ around the Beveridge curve. The shock that creates a positive co-movement between vacancies and unemployment is due to matching efficiency and job destruction. This positive co-movement occurs after recessions and in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Pater, 2017. "Is there a Beveridge curve in the short and the long run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 20, pages 283-303, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:20:y:2017:n:2:p:283-303
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    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; unemployment types; unobserved components; common trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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