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Debt reduction, fiscal adjustment, and growth in credit-constrained economies

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele Baldacci

    (Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT))

  • Sanjeev Gupta

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Carlos Mulas-Granados

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during the 1980–2012 period. It shows that expenditure-based, front-loaded fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit supply restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion, while reducing public debt. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2015. "Debt reduction, fiscal adjustment, and growth in credit-constrained economies," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 71-98, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:18:y:2015:n:1:p:71-98
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    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume18/Baldacci_appendix.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    2. Lawal Isola Adedoyin & Bibire Mabel Babalola & Adegbola O. Otekunri & Lawal Isola Adedoyin, 2016. "External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(6), pages 179-194, DECEMBER.
    3. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    4. Oscar Bajo‐Rubio & Antonio G. Gómez‐Plana, 2022. "A multi‐country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 4-35, January.
    5. Oronde Small & Leanora Brown & Gustavo Canavire‐Bacarreza, 2020. "The Fiscal Policy Response To Public Debt In Developing Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 155-165, January.
    6. Ioannis Kostakis, 2017. "The impact of shadow economy and/or corruption on private consumption: further evidence from selected Eurozone economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 411-434, December.
    7. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    8. Stephanos Papadamou & Trifon Tzivinikos, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 34-49, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt consolidation; fiscal adjustments; output growth; credit constraints; bank deleveraging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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