Econometric Model For Complex Analyses And Forecast Of The Gross Domestic Product

This paper develops a complex analysis of GDP influence factors for the Romanian economy. The study takes into account the calculation methods for the main indicator and outlines several correlations between its evolution and the dynamics of different factors. The authors use the simple and multiple linear regression methods, data are drawn from the national accounts published by the National Institute of Statistics, and are processed with Eviews. The correlations are substantiated on graphical representations, analysis of the results of estimations for the regression models, and also on the specific valuation of models’ validity based on statistical tests. The results outline the influences that different factors have on the evolution of Romania’s Gross Domestic Product and also. Based on the configuration of the drawn models, the authors present a forecast of GDP’s evolution in the next years. In this study, we wanted to identify the main factors that influence GDP growth in Romania and to estimate their influence with the help of multiple linear regression-based analysis. As the most complex multifactorial correlation, we will take into consideration the GDP as the explained variable and the six factorial variables, ie, Private consumption, Public consumption, Gross investments, Changes in inventories, Net Export, Gross available income.