Effetti della segmentazione del mercato del lavoro sulla ricchezza pensionistica nel sistema contributivo italiano

The aim of this study is to analyse in a dynamic perspective the effects on levels of pensions produced by inequalities originating within the labour market, on the basis of the functioning of the Italian social security system. In particular, limiting analysis solely to individuals belonging to the contribution-based system, the attempt is made to quantify the expected cost associated with atypical careers, with reference to the pension prospects for individuals belonging to the cohorts born between the 1970s and the first decade of the new millennium. With utilisation of the t-dymm dynamic microsimulation model, it is possible to calculate a measure of the individual pension wealth at the time of retirement (rp) and compare it to a standard value corresponding to an entirely "standard" career. On the basis of these simulations, income received on average throughout working life being equal, the individual cost expected in terms of overall rp of a year (extra) of quasi-subordinate work ranges between 2,300 and 3,500 euro. In terms of percentages this corresponds to an expected deviation from the average pension wealth between 0.6% and 0.8%. On extending definition of what is meant by "atypical", interesting results also emerge from analysis of fixed-term forms of employment contracts and self-employment.