L'impact du risque prud'homal sur le recours aux contrats à durée déterminée : une analyse à partir des DMMO

?Using establishment data from the French DMMO administrative files (2002-2005), this article explores the question of the determinants of the use of fixed-term contracts. The focus is on the impact of the risk of litigation following layoffs. In the context of a choice between fixed-term and open-ended contracts, the fact that layoffs might lead to legal disputes can indeed be seen as a factor that increases the separation costs relating to permanent employees, making the use of temporary contracts more attractive. In the present study, carried out on establish­ments (with 50 employees or more) that hired in year t, the risk of legal disputes is measured by two indicators (at the local level) : an ?index of conflictuality?, linking the number of claims before the local labour courts to the number of layoffs in the area where the plant is located, and a ?rate of judgments?, aiming at capturing the probability that a case will end in a judgment. These two indicators are used separately and simultaneous­ly. The cross-sectional estimation results (2005) seem to indicate that the risk of litigation has a positive effect on the use of fixed-term contracts, as expected. However, this effect is rather small. Furthermore, when unobserved factors are taken into account (analysis on panel data), the indicators used appear significant only in regressions with random effects.?