Taux de change et régions : un cadre conceptuel pour anticiper l'euro

The impact in the long run of exchange rate is differentiated between the regions of a country or of a monetary zone. Nevertheless, very few theoretical or empirical work has been done in that field. On the one hand, standard international trade theory considers the national space as being homogenous. On the other hand, work on regional production systems do not integrate macroeconomic variables like the exchange rate. In a complementary approach, MUNDELL (1961) considered that an optimal monetary zone should encompass regions who react in a symmetric way to external chocks. Otherwise, unfavoured regions would endure significant adjustment costs. This idea is fundamental. Nevertheless, this article addresses rather its corollaries. Given that a currency is used by a set of regions who react in an asymmetric way to exchange rates evolution, how do these regions adapt in the long run ? A typology of expected impacts is built. These questions are essential in the context of european monetary integration. How will real production systems react in the long run as they can no longer rely on exchange rates adaptations between european markets ? Classification JEL : F310, R110, R300, R380, R510.