David Playing for Saul – How Long did Ministers Last During the Portuguese Dictatorship?

This paper analyzes the political survival of ministers who served during the 48-year Portuguese dictatorship (1926-1974). As these politicians do not face the challenges posed by electoral cycles and the pressure of economic conditions, which affect the prestige and longevity of politicians in parliamentary democracies, we have tested several other hypotheses suggested by the literature concerning political survival in authoritarian regimes. Through the empirical analysis of survival functions and of proportional hazard regressions with frailties, we concluded that the profiles we studied tended to be replaced more often if they belonged to political minorities in the early periods of the dictatorship and if their contestation to the regime was noticeable. In contrast, increases in the unemployment level, ministers with military careers, and younger profiles were characteristics that increased the chance of the minister surviving in office. Other variables, such as differences between ministries or the manner of termination of the mandate, are also discussed.